The best knowledge and research based information is based on the report, Scoping the future: An evaluation of endoscopy capacity across the NHS in England.
This report forecasts activity for 2019/20 (Pages 17-22) as follows:
The model (See Fig 3) forecasts that by 2019/20, the demand for GI endoscopy will exceed 2.4 million procedures per annum. This represents a growth of 44% over the baseline position and a growth rate of 6.5% per annum, substantially greater than historical growth rates in DM01 GI endoscopy activity (2.8% per annum between 2006/7 and 2013/14).
The model suggests that approximately one quarter of the forecast growth (c. 1.5% per annum) arise as a function of changes in demography and population health status; factors that might be considered to be outside of the immediate control of the health system. The remaining growth is driven by deliberate strategies to improve population health or through the roll-out of new technologies. The single largest contributor or growth in endoscopy activity is the roll-out of the bowel scope programme.
In previous reports NHS England advised on planning for 10-15% up to 2017.
